By Donna Hemmila

Can a few seconds warning save your life in a major earthquake? There's a good chance it can, and researchers at UC Berkeley have been working on an early-warning system that could give folks at least a running start before things start tumbling down.

"We're only talking about a few seconds to tens of seconds," said Richard Allen, a UC Berkeley assistant professor of earth and planetary science. Yet those few seconds of warning can be critical to survival.

Allen is a researcher at the California Integrated Seismic Network and is leading development of an early-warning system that could broadcast a quake alert to cell phones, computers or phone messaging systems. The network is a collaboration of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California, the California Institute of Technology and the Swiss Seismological Service.

Network researchers have had recent success in using existing seismic monitoring systems to predict the level of ground shaking a geographic area will experience once a fault has ruptured.

On Oct. 30, 2007, the system accurately predicted the ground shaking in San Francisco seconds before the 5.4 Alum Rock earthquakes actually hit the city.

Now, Allen said, network researchers are talking to agencies like the Bay Area Rapid Transit District about the possibility of deploying early-warning systems in the Bay Area. Mexico, Turkey, Romania and Taiwan have such systems, and last October, Japan activated a nationwide early warning system.

In Japan, Allen said, after the system was launched cell phone providers quickly began offering quake warning services to their customers with special ring tones. He'd like to see something similar in the marketplace here.

But can just a few seconds warning really make a difference? Allen says yes. In a few seconds, someone can step away from shattering windows or falling bookcases. The computers that run BART trains could automatically slow down the rail system or stop the trains. Elevators could be programmed to stop on the next floor and open doors to prevent people from being trapped inside for hours. Factories could automatically stop production lines.

In July 2009, researchers expect to complete testing of the warning systems and to have estimates on how effective such a system would be in California.

"This is no panacea," said Allen. "The idea is we can reduce hazards."


For more about earthquakes, visit the U.S. Geological Survey's preparedness resource guide at earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Learn about UC Riverside's Quake-Catcher Network.
http://www.newsroom.ucr.edu/cgi-bin/display.cgi?id=1806

Take a Google Earth virtual tour of the Hayward Fault at
www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2006/03/usgs_virtual_to.html

Donna Hemmila is editor of Our University.