Using the same kind of mathematical modeling as he uses for earthquake forecasting, Donald Turcotte, a professor of geology at UC Davis, studies wildfire forecasting. (Fire forecasts can predict where fires are likely to break out, but not when. Public agencies use the forecasts to plan resource deployment during fire season.) The fire models have shown that large fires are more likely to occur when fuel is allowed to build up because small fires are suppressed. Those findings have steered him to the same conclusions Minnich has reached about the way California fights fires.

"The controlled burn is a big thing," says Turcotte. "This is a highly emotional issue. My feeling is it's a very good thing, but ecological groups are against it."

Yet the areas susceptible to burning are too vast to reduce the fuel by cutting it out, Turcotte says.

Critics of the let-it-burn philosophy point to the other factors that contribute to wildfire: ignition and wind. The early outbreak of California's June fires have been attributed, in part, to unusual strikes of dry lightning in Northern California and high winds in the early days of the conflagrations. While those natural phenomena are factors, Turcotte says, the availability of fuel is what causes the biggest fire danger.

"Sooner or later, you'll get ignition," he says. "You don't want fires to start but in terms of having big fires, it's inevitable."

He, too, favors stronger land management polices such as forcing homeowners who build in high fire-danger areas to keep vegetation cleared from around their structures. Local agencies should enforce the setback policies, he says, and insurance companies shouldn't pay the claims if a homeowner didn't keep the setback cleared.

More research emphasis needs to be on fires, he says, and suggests putting a fee on all homeowner insurance policies in California to pay for studying issues such as fire-resistant building practices and fire suppression methods.

Fighting fire with fire may be the solution

Richard Minnich, professor of geography, UC Riverside earth sciences department

Climate change fanning the flames

Anthony Westerling, assistant professor of environmental engineering, and geography, UC Merced; principal investigator, California Applications Program and Climate Change Center at Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Aussie rural fire brigades defend themselves

Scott Stephens, associate professor of fire sciences, UC Berkeley; co-director, Center for Fire Research and Outreach