>> Sidebar: Putting teeth into anti-sprawl legislation

By Andy Evangelista

Need to get to work, shop or pick up the kids from school? No sweat, hop into the car.

California's sprawling suburbs were built with the car in mind. Throughout the latter half of the 20th century's building boom, driveways, drive-throughs and retail centers along freeways flourished. But with climate change and mounting greenhouse gas emissions, current land use and transportation plans aim to shift our car-centric culture into reverse.

Transportation accounts for more than one-third of greenhouse gas emissions in the state, according to the California Air Resources Board, and the daily driving to and from households is a big culprit.

"Even with development of cleaner fuels and cars that get better gas mileage, improvements in land use are critical if we want to reduce vehicle travel," said Stephen Ritchie, professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Irvine. He is also co-director of UC Multicampus Research Programs and Inititative on Sustainable Transportation.

Planners are now looking to design communities that are denser, more compact, pedestrian-friendly and public transit-oriented. Employers, schools, stores and services will be closer to homes. The trick is to design convenient and lively neighborhoods, and at the same time, get people out of their cars as much as possible.

"UC researchers will play a pivotal role in California's efforts toward a more sustainable future," said Kurt Karperos, chief of the Air Quality and Transportation Planning Branch for the state air board. "Whether it's developing the state-of-the-art computer models that planners need to design the cities of the future or helping our elected officials understand the science that governs how we travel around our communities, UC researchers are our key researchers in reducing greenhouse gases from cars. They provide the sound science from which the state can build new policies."

New law to curb sprawl

And California has been a leader among states in developing policies to combat climate change. Last year, the state passed Senate Bill 375, the nation's first law to control greenhouse gas emissions by curbing sprawl.

"SB 375 is focused on changing land use patterns throughout California that will reduce people's dependency on the automobile, reduce long distance commuting patterns, and reduce green house gas emissions as a result," said Gary Binger, co-director of the Center for a Sustainable California at UC Berkeley. One of the center's goals is to be a resource for implementing SB 375.

Although it could take decades for many environment-friendly communities to sprout all over the state, 2010 will be a critical year for planners laying the seeds for the new-style development and state agencies looking to whittle the carbon footprint.

The landmark SB 375 directs the state air board to establish greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2020 and 2035 for each region in the state by Sept. 30, 2010. The air board will update these targets every eight years. It will then work with each of the state's 18 metropolitan planning organizations, which must develop a "sustainable communities strategy" to achieve these targets.

The agencies will need models or tools to predict accurately, for example, how their proposed strategies will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If housing is added to a community because of population growth and to make it denser, which modes of transportation will people likely select and how many trips will they take? If increased or improved public transit is offered, will people ride and how much will that reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Do carpool lanes or toll roads really reduce vehicle miles traveled? Will taxes or fees to discourage driving have unintended or uneven effects on certain socioeconomic groups? Without the tools to get answers to questions like these, policymakers and planners will be shooting at state-set emission targets in the dark.

UC institute revs up research

And this is where UC researchers will help, said Marlon Boarnet, a UC Irvine professor who studies the link between land use and transportation networks. UC has numerous world class experts who have developed devices and models to collect the critical information that the state needs, said Boarnet, who co-directs new efforts by the multi-campus UC Institute of Transportation Studies to study greenhouse gases policies related to SB 375.

This year, institute researchers will examine many transportation policies and practices, ranging from tolls, parking and fuel fees to car-sharing programs and campaigns to get people to walk.

"For each practice, we will identify relevant studies, assess the body of evidence and provide numerical estimates of the likely range of impact on greenhouse gases," said Boarnet.

Researchers will also direct agencies to new technologies for collecting travel data. Examples of UC-led research include GPS-enabled cell phones that track travel and PDAs to survey people about their travel habits.

Partnerships between UC and agencies and planners are forming. Boarnet, for example, will help collect data for the Southern California Association of Governments, a metropolitan planning organization representing 189 cities and more than 19 million residents. He is also collaborating with the state Air Resources Board to develop tools to capture data about local travel practices and driving behavior.

Habits hard to break

Researchers also are paying attention to more than numbers and data. New technology and the best-intended plans will fall flat if people travel to a different tune.

If people can work, shop and play within walking distance from their homes, perhaps they wouldn't drive as often. Many would assume this is so, but it's not that simple, according to Susan Handy, director of the Sustainable Transportation Center at UC Davis, which studies people's travel choices and examines the link between built environments and physical activity and health.

For example, if planners changed neighborhood design, would people really change their behavior?

"If car-lovers end up in a walkable neighborhood for the wrong reasons — let's say they were drawn in by financial incentives used as a policy instrument — their travel behavior probably won't match that of those who chose the neighborhood because it was conducive to walking, and thus the policy will not be as successful as expected," said Handy, who with Marlon Boarnet, co-directs the UC Transportation Institute's studies related to SB 375. Plans and policies intended to reduce travel need to get at the root of what attracts people to an walk-friendly community, for example, and what extra measures are needed to keep up the healthy trend.

Tracking SoCal travel

Kostas Goulias, director of the UC Santa Barbara geography department's GeoTrans Laboratory, is devising models — based partly on surveys and travel diaries of more than 17,000 households — to extrapolate and create virtual travel schedules for 19 million Southern California residents. It will provide one of the first estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and impacts of potential land use and transportation policies that follow SB 375 guidelines for the Southern California Association of Governments and state agencies

The models, Goulias said, may also reveal reactions — and even hardships — created by policies. A person who can no longer afford to drive because of toll roads or high gas prices may end up taking public transportation, but the extra time on buses or trains may restrict valuable time to her or his family. A family that has found a good school 20 miles away may not likely remove their kids from the school because of increased transportation costs. Instead, they'll probably make financial sacrifices somewhere else and still drive.

In one model scenario, he found an individual who skirted a new toll-charging highway in favor of the back roads. He ended up traveling the same number of miles, but his stop-and-go driving emitted more greenhouse gases. "We might have the best-intentioned plans to get people to reduce their driving," said Goulias. "But people may not react the way we think they will."

UC researchers' models will indeed give policymakers, planners and agencies a lot to ponder.

A valuable offshoot of these studies and models, Goulias said, is the knowledge and experience gained by UC students in transportation-related programs.

"Many will be policymakers and planners very soon and during the critical years when we're looking at climate change," he said. "They are getting a broader view of land use and transportation, which includes the sociology, economics, geography, engineering and more."

Andy Evangelista is the communications coordinator for research in the UC Office of the President Integrated Communications group. For more information, visit the UC Newsroom or follow us on Twitter.