DAVIS — The University of California, Davis, has experts available to discuss earthquake-related topics. The following researchers can provide assistance in the subject areas listed.

• Why earthquakes happen
• Earthquake forecasting
• When the ground shifts
• Simulating an earthquake
• The California connection
• History of earthquakes in Latin America
• Organizations and disaster response

Why earthquakes happen

Louise Kellogg, professor of geology studies how the slow movement of rock deep in the Earth's interior drives the movement of tectonic plates, building mountains as well as causing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Contact: Louise Kellogg, Geology, (530) 752-3690, kellogg@geology.ucdavis.edu.

Forecasting the next major earthquake

John Rundle, professor of physics and geology at the Center for Computational Science and Engineering at UC Davis, can comment on why earthquakes occur in different parts of the world and the prospects for developing successful earthquake forecasts. The San Francisco Bay region has a 25 percent chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in the next 20 years, and a roughly 1 percent chance of such an earthquake each year, according to the "Virtual California" computer simulation developed by Rundle and colleagues from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and other institutions. Their forecasts use sophisticated computer models, knowledge of fault patterns and satellite data to develop maps of areas that are likely to have a major earthquake within a certain time. They have already produced 10-year forecasts for California, Japan and worldwide, which are currently under test. Contact: John Rundle, Computational Science and Engineering Center, (530) 752-6416, jbrundle@ucdavis.edu.

When the ground shifts

Ross Boulanger, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering, studies liquefaction and other ground responses to earthquakes He combines field observations and measurements with laboratory work to create predictive conceptual and physical models of liquefaction risk. These can be translated into computational models. His research involves use of UC Davis' very large centrifuge (see below) and visiting earthquake sites around the world, including Loma Prieta (1989), Northridge (1994), Kobe (1995), Turkey and Taiwan (1999). In Turkey and Taiwan, Boulanger was among a select group of geotechnical experts sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Contact: Ross Boulanger, Civil and Environmental Engineering, (530) 752-2947, rwboulanger@ucdavis.edu.

Simulating an earthquake in the laboratory

UC Davis is home to one of the world's largest geotechnical centrifuges, at the Geotechnical Modeling Facility. It consists of a testing table, capable of carrying loads of 5 tons, mounted on the end of a 30-foot-long arm. The assembly spins around at speeds up to 70 revolutions per minute, generating forces up to 50 times the force of gravity. When the desired speed is reached, the table is shaken to simulate intense earthquake shaking. Researchers from around the world use the facility to study geotechnical problems such as the strength, stiffness and capacity of foundations for bridges and buildings; settlement of embankments; stability of slopes; earth retaining structures; tunnel stability; ports and seawalls. Contact: Bruce Kutter, Civil and Environmental Engineering, (530) 752-8099, blkutter@ucdavis.edu.

The California connection

Why does California have so many earthquakes, and so many big ones? UC Davis professor and seismologist Jim McClain can explain the basic role of tectonic plate activity in causing earthquakes around the world, California's hazardous location at the collision of two of those plates, and the reasons why the Central Valley is relatively protected from devastating earthquakes. Contact: Jim McClain, Geology, (530) 752-7093, mcclain@geology.ucdavis.edu.

Earthquakes in Latin America

UC Davis historian Chuck Walker is an expert on the history of catastrophes and natural disasters, such as earthquakes, in the Andes. He can talk about the historical politics of Latino natural disasters as well as the history of crime and violence in the region. Contact: Chuck Walker (fluent in Spanish), History, (530) 752-3046, cfwalker@ucdavis.edu.

Why organizations won't plan for disasters

Organizational sociologist Tom Beamish studies how organizations and institutions deal with disasters. Beamish, an associate professor of sociology, can talk about how organizations — governmental, commercial and social — respond to human-induced disasters. He says many disasters reflect long-term problems actively ignored or simply not seen by the organizations charged with protecting the public. "These organizations are generally reactive," he says. "Being proactive requires making difficult choices over funding and priorities, choosing among the risks, and overcoming a basic inertia in organizational routines." Beamish wrote "Silent Spill: The Organization of an Industrial Crisis" (2002). Contact: Tom Beamish, Sociology, (530) 754-6897, tdbeamish@ucdavis.edu.

About UC Davis

For more than 100 years, UC Davis has engaged in teaching, research and public service that matter to California and transform the world. Located close to the state capital, UC Davis has 32,000 students, an annual research budget that exceeds $600 million, a comprehensive health system and 13 specialized research centers. The university offers interdisciplinary graduate study and more than 100 undergraduate majors in four colleges — Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Biological Sciences, Engineering, and Letters and Science. It also houses six professional schools — Education, Law, Management, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine and the Betty Irene Moore School of Nursing.