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| Laurence Smith |
By Ariel Rubissow Okamoto
As a UCLA geography professor and climate change scientist, Laurence C. Smith splits time in two very different places: metropolitan, trendy Southern California and the wild and primitive Northern Rim.
And while the northern reaches of the world — places that include Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Finland and parts of Russia, Canada and the United States — may not be the most popular place to go today, a warmer climate could make them more inviting to those in search of new energy and business frontiers in the future, he says.
Smith will discuss his research in places far and wild, as well as his recent book, "The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future," at noon April 29 at the UC Office of the President in Oakland. The talk may be viewed live or after the event on Ustream.tv.
Smith's book, published last fall and on numerous must-read lists of 2010 books, explores the effects of four forces of global change — population, trade, resources and climate — on the northern nations. It suggests the prospect of a new powerhouse on the polar frontier.
Smith first traveled north for doctoral research in 1994, taking a hovercraft up the "violent, wild, non-navigable, braided Iskut River" on the border of Alaska and British Columbia. He wanted to test how satellites could be used to measure the melt of glaciers and the extent of flooding in such remote places.
Since then, Smith has been at the forefront of global climate change science. In his book, he describes a world in 2050 transformed not only by warming skies but also by shrinking supplies of food, water and fuel. He depicts a new north where the inaccessible and inhospitable reaches of places like Manitoba and Siberia become more welcoming.
Smith foresees mining and drilling boomtowns on the tundra. He tells stories of the steady migration of wildlife northwards, of polar bears mating with grizzlies, and spring arriving four days earlier each decade. He foresees new human migrations across the globe, as southern latitudes heat up and dry out.
Smith grew up in a cold place, Chicago, and studied in an even colder place, Cornell University, in upstate New York. He has worked in Siberian bogs, drilling out ancient peat; he wanted to see how much carbon was stored there that might be returned to the atmosphere once the region thaws. He has documented the loss of lakes over thawing Siberian permafrost, and heads to Greenland this summer. Here, in a dangerous place where rivers flow off the ice sheet, over the land and into the ocean, he will measure how much water actually escapes, rather than remaining on top of the sheet. His sponsor, NASA, wants to know the degree to which the ice melt will actually swell the world's oceans.
Northern landscapes appeal to Smith. "They're raw, often empty. There's a primitiveness that takes over up there," he said. "Here in L.A. I work at my computer, I dress nicely, I hang out in nice restaurants and cocktail lounges. Then when I go up there I put on my old Icelandic sweater and boots.
"In the north, the basic logistics of food, shelter and transport can be very challenging and all-consuming, and take even more time than the actual scientific measurements," he continued. "Polar scientists tend to be very smart, data driven, and good with computers, but they can also fix snowmobiles, haul diesel, and do basic construction work."
When Smith headed north to do his book research, he intended to focus on climate science. He began asking seal hunters, reindeer herders, miners, farmers, fishermen, oil drillers and local mayors about changes they had noticed in their environment. After a handful of interviews, he decided his focus was too narrow.
"They talked about Filipino immigrants taking low-pay jobs, and pipelines in their backyards," he said. "I was surprised to find that issues like global supply chains and energy prices are so in-your-face present up there, even more present than they are here down in L.A. It's stark and shocking to see these forces in operation in such a remote part of the world."
For California, water shortages and the accompanying loss of agriculture in the Central Valley are the most pressing result of climate change that Smith sees ahead. Cities will get more water than farms, he thinks, unlike today. The nation may find itself with crumbs in its former breadbasket.
Smith's April 29 talk is part of a lecture series sponsored by UCOP's Office of Research and Graduate Studies. Upcoming research lunch talks include:- Friday, May 13, Professor Wayne Cornelius of UC San Diego, "Anatomy of a Policy Failure: Border Enforcement and Immigration along the U.S.-Mexican Border."
- Friday, June 10, Professor V. "Ram" Ramanathan of UC San Diego, From CFCs to Cook Stoves: How We Can Work to Stop Global Warming
Lectures are broadcast live via Ustream TV at www.ustream.tv/ucevents. You may also join the lectures mailing list for announcements and reminders of coming events by contacting orgs@ucop.edu.
Ariel Rubissow Okamoto is a freelance writer for the UC Office of the President. For more news, visit the UC Newsroom or follow us on Twitter.